Looking Ahead At The Likely Battle Grounds
If you haven’t had a chance yet, swing over to Mike Hailey’s Capitolinside and check out his top twenty list of House races to watch as we make our way through summer and into November. I won’t spoil the ending by sharing the list, but Mr. Hailey did have some interesting afterthoughts to add on his own.
For instance, 8 of his top 10 races feature seats where Democrats are trying to hold what they already have (though when I looked at his list, I counted it at 7 out of 10 seat for Dems to defend). And according to Mr. Hailey, with 12 of 20 total to defend, Democrats would have to win 17 of his top 20 to take a majority in the lower chamber.
Mr. Hailey’s list further suggests that Democrats might be too busy playing defense in November to launch the offensive attack it will take to grab a majority, though he does offer what he calls a “tall order” scenario where such an outcome could materialize. But in the end, Mr. Hailey hints that a break even between Republicans and Democrats is most likely once the dust settles.
Having read his list, I think that Mr. Hailey missed just two. First, I think that Solomon Ortiz Jr.’s race deserves a spot, one that is closer to number 1 than number 20. If you look at Rep. Ortiz’s initial election to the House, he won his seat with just 52% of the vote in an election cycle where Republicans were, on average, down about 6-8 points all across the state. His November opponent is also of Hispanic ethnicity, something that could cut into the base that carried Mr. Ortiz to a close victory two years ago.
And lastly, I think that Mr. Hailey might be underestimating House District 105 by putting Linda Harper-Brown on his worth mentioning list and not on the top twenty. Recent numbers suggest that Rep. Harper-Brown is above water, this being an ‘06 rematch that the incumbent Republican won by 14 points, but something in my gut says that this race could be the November shocker.
There’s always at least one.
One Response to “Looking Ahead At The Likely Battle Grounds”
By Bob Gloster on Apr 26, 2008
If were just going by what’s on paper, I’d say Harper-Brown is safe. But she seems to be so roundly disliked by both Democrats and moderate Republicans, I’d agree there’s potential for an upset.
I’d hesitate to put Ortiz much higher. Supposedly, he’s run a good constituent relations shop and his challenger this time is weak and receiving little support/funding from the GOP establishment. He’s lost about 5 previous races for local office. The other two Corpus Christi seats are more at risk, both have viable challengers.
I would have put Miklos v. Anderson higher on the list and Matula v. Davis lower.
That’s just my take.
Good blog! -Bob