The Honor Roll - Show Me The Money Part III
The fun we’ve had looking at those who raised their opponents to death, those incumbents who have dropped the ball, and those races that one way or another were made to sound like more than they really were. Anyone who knows me knows that I do thinks in threes, and with this being the last installment in this series there is no better way to conclude it than with the Honor Roll. So first we’ll take a glance at the races where both sides are holding on to the fundraising ball, and then briefly recap those who can effectively call themselves Fundraising Giants.
Juan Garcia v Todd Hunter
Strait up, these guys turned in some power numbers, combining for over 700K in contributions for the period. I think it is easy to say that this is shaping up to be the most expensive race of the season. The challenger, Todd Hunter, did well for himself with 300K raised, but if I were to spot one fault in the armor it would be the cash out. Frankly, without going into detail Mr. Hunter spent a little bit more money for the period than I am comfortable with.
This race will be fun to watch, with both sides already lobbing bombs. The district is “Republican”, but it is riding that 57-58 percent threshold that most pollsters are saying equates no longer a stronghold for the GOP. Mr. Garcia has won in the Devil’s backyard before, but lets be real, Todd Hunter is not carrying near the baggage that Gene Seamen was.
Joe Heflin v Isaac Castro
Ok, combined 99K raised versus 700K raised is not nearly as sexy, but we are talking about West Texas here. Both candidates put up near identical contributions raised for the period, and despite the power of incumbency, Joe Heflin is only a mere 24K ahead in cash on hand. A number that the Republican machine will make up and then some if they smell blood in the water.
This race is going to be interesting as well. Everyone said that former Speaker Laney’s seat was destine to go R once he was done, but Heflin pulled off the upset of upsets to keep that from happening. But, he did it with a lot of help from the former Speaker. Question is, will Laney be as involved in this race this time around, or will he see if the 1 term member can stand on his own feet.
Tony Goolsby v Carol Kent
Chairman Goolsby has a lot of bullets in his gun, 403 thousand of them to be exact. But his challenger, Carol Kent, is showing up front that she is not opposed to playing catchup, pulling in 165K of her own and ending the period with 122K in the bank.
Mr. Goolsby was suppose to lose last cycle, but he flat out out-worked his opponent on his way to a victory. I don’t doubt the incumbent’s work ethic this time around, but the flap he is catching for coming down on those with ghost employee hiring history while having some of the same history of his own does create a threat. My guess is that more democrat money is going to pour in and that the troops are going to hit the ground, meaning that Mr. Goolsby is going to have to hit it hard again.
Allen Vaught v Bill Keffer
Talk about neck and neck. Mr. Vaught is showing 111K in the bank, and the challenger this time around, Bill Keffer, is showing slightly better footing at 117K. But for all practical purposes, it’s a fundraising dead heat with both parties turning in impressive showings thus far.
It is no secret that had Bill Keffer worked this hard last time out that he would have held on to his seat and be working toward his 4th term in office. So this time around Bill Keffer should be ok, right? Not so fast. He may have his head on strait this time, but now Mr. Vaught has the power of incumbency and a rising star status amongst his party that the democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink at to protect. Vaught v Keffer round two is living up to the hype, and could be a less than 500 vote margin race.
Jim Murphy v Kristi Thibaut
Who had this race on their radar? I will bet you that Jim Murphy didn’t, but likewise I will wager that he does now given that his opponent turned in 116K in total donations and just south of 100K in cash on hand. Not to be outdone, though, Mr. Murphy pulled in 130K of his own and is showing 171K hanging around to play around with.
This is a rematch from 2006 when Murphy beat the challenging Thibaut by 14 points. But don’t be so quick to write this one off. Mr. Murphy finds his district surrounded by much of the opposition, usually meaning that you’re about to come under attack. And Ms. Thibaut’s July report indicates that she’s in this race to be taken seriously.
Hubert Vo v Greg Meyers
Call this one the weak link on the Honor Roll, but to me it still has characteristics worth discussing. Neither candidate raised an eye opening amount for the period, but in this case the challenger (Mr. Meyers) did out-raise the incumbent nearly 3 to 1. To be fair to Mr. Vo, though, he is still holding on to the cash on hand advantage.
I suspect this race will be tighter than it was in ‘06, when Vo beat down the bumbling Mr. Heflin. This race, too, is riding that threshold of it should be Republican but might not be in real life. The real question at this point is how much is the slum lord status that Vo is holding on to going to hurt him come the fall.
Mark Homer v Kirby Hollingsworth
Talk about perplexing. This is a solidly R district that suddenly becomes solidly D once voters get to the State Representative race. Despite Republican statewides crushing their counterparts in ‘06, Mark Homer beat back Mr. Hollingsworth by 5,500 votes.
But now they are back, and Mr. Hollingsworth is giving this rematch his all, raising 88K and keeping 86K of it around. But despite his past success, Mr. Homer is in it to run hard also, posting fundraising numbers that has him very close to 200K cash on hand. This one is probably a D victory, but who knows. Stranger things have happened.
Individual Honor Roll
I would hate to punish someone by keeping them off the Honor Roll list just because their counterpart in the fall isn’t out there fundraising themselves, so in no particular order, here is my Individual Honor Roll.
- John Zerwas - Freshman incumbent pulls in 92K in contributions without any major opposition in the fall. Not bad for a newbie.
- Patrick Rose - 285K raised for the period and over 800K cash on hand. 3rd term member might find himself in the million dollar club come next report.
- Valinda Bolton - 120K raised? I really didn’t think she had it in her.
- Donna Howard - Ditto to her 161K raised.
- Diana Maldonado - Her 139K raised has kept the democrat hopes alive in this usual strong Republican district.
- Burt Solomons - Now up to 846K, which he will have to put in a Senate race once Senator Harris decides to turn in.
- Ken Paxton - I was seriously surprised to see 440K cash on hand. Not bad, Mr. Paxton.
- Paula Pierson - 104K cash on hand is not bad for a freshman member of the minority party.
- Chris Turner - His 240K raised brings 1 word to mind…damn.
- Dan Branch - 603K in the bank is nice for a future higher run. Lets hope he doesn’t have to spend too much of it this time around fighting off a no name opponent riding nothing but a prayer and a movement.
- Joe Straus - Only two terms and already at 585K in the bank. Quite impressive.
- Ellen Cohen - Clearly she is distinguishing herself as the real fundraiser from this freshmen class. Though there are those that would argue that she is a benefactor of the district she represents.
- Joel Redmond - Hat tip to Reid for bringing this to my attention. Had I been aware of this a week ago, Mr. Redmond’s fundraising number would have warranted me putting his Republican opponent on my wake up call list.